How much can increase in expected product lifetime contribute to extending actual product use duration? A case study of refrigerators

The expected lifetime of a product is a consumer-oriented factor that needs to be considered when assessing product lifetime extension. While numerous studies have analysed the expected lifetime of appliances, only a study for air conditioners has assessed the effect of changes in the expected product lifetime on the actual product use duration. Consequently, the impact for another product needs to be examined in order to develop appropriate product lifetime extension policies. This study estimated the impact of the expected product lifetime on the actual product use duration of refrigerators. We employed a dynamic discrete choice model (DDCM) to examine consumers’ product replacement decisions as they are related to refrigerators. Also, we quantitatively analyzed the impact of the expected product lifetime on product use by using the parameters of the DDCM. The results showed that an increase in the expected product lifetime of refrigerators can contribute to prolonging actual product use for refrigerators. If the expected product lifetime is extended by 1, 2, and 3 years, the actual product use duration can be extended by 0.52, 1.05, and 1.59 years, respectively, which are shorter than the estimates obtained for air conditioners in a previous study. The results imply that the degree of product lifetime extension differs between products. Therefore, clarifying factors which causes the difference in the product lifetime extension effects is important to achieve product lifetime extension effectively.