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Temporal analysis of COVID-19 epidemiological indicators in a low-income Brazilian context: a retrospective analysis in Paraiba State

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-11-13, 11:09 authored by Fabiola Ferreira da Silva, Luiz Carlos DeAbreuLuiz Carlos DeAbreu, Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin, Tassiane Cristina Morais, Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti, Italla Maria Pinheiro Bezerra, Célia Guarnieri da Silva, Fernando Augusto Marinho dos Santos Figueira, Viviane Valeria de Caldas Guedes, Andres Ricardo Perez Riera

Northeast Brazil is a region with great international tourist potential. Among the states that make up this region, Paraíba stands out due to the presence of vulnerable groups and factors that contribute to adverse outcomes of COVID-19. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiological data on the incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 in Paraíba. An ecological, population-based study was performed, with data extracted from the Brazilian Ministry of Health database. All cases and deaths from COVID-19 from March 2020 to December 2022 were included. The time series was built by applying the Prais–Winsten regression model, and the daily percent change was calculated to analyze the trends. The highest case fatality of the entire period was in April 2020 (7.8%), but in March 2021, the state broke the dismal record of 1248 deaths and the highest mortality rate (30.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). Stationary mortality and case fatality were better in 2022; however, in February 2022, the mortality rate was at levels similar to the same month of the previous year. These results illustrate that COVID-19 is evolving and needs to be constantly monitored.



Viruses 2023, 15 (10), 2016



Other Funding information

This research received financial support from “Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa e Inovação do Espírito Santo (Fapes)

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