The association between training load indices and injuries in elite soccer players

To investigate the association between contact injuries, noncontact injuries, and training load indices, across different lag periods in elite soccer players. Internal load (session rate of perceived exertion) was collected from 15 elite soccer players over 1 season (40-weeks). Acute (7 days), chronic (28 days), acute:chronic workload ratio (ACWR) (uncoupled), exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) ACWR, and 2-, 3-, and 4-week cumulative load were calculated on a rolling weekly basis. Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyze the associations between contact, noncontact injuries, and training load indices, across different lag periods (5 and 7 days). A player was at a significantly higher risk of a noncontact injury 5 days later, if week-to-week acute load changes increased (odds ratio [OR] = 1.97). An increase in EWMA ACWR was associated with an increased risk of both a contact (OR = 1.30) and noncontact injury (OR = 1.35), 5 days later. An increase in 2-week cumulative load (OR = 1.77) was associated with an increased risk of a contact injury 7 days later and 3-week cumulative load (OR = 1.55) 5 days later. These findings suggest that to reduce the potential risk of a noncontact injury, training load should be gradually increased, avoiding an increase in week-to-week acute load change (≥9%) or EWMA ACWR (>1.20). Findings indicated that EWMA ACWR may be a more sensitive measure for detecting a player at a higher risk of an injury than ACWR. Furthermore, a high 2- and 3-week cumulative load was associated with an increased risk of a contact injury, which may indicate accumulated fatigue. Practitioners must note that this study investigated associations with injury risk and not injury prediction.