Trends in COVID-19 lethality and mortality rates in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil: a time series analysis from April 2020 to June 2021

Introduction: continual mutations of the sars-cov-2 virus, with the possibility of reinfection or reactivation of the virus, can lead to a further spread of the virus and consequently new infection periods. The state of pernambuco, brazil, has faced many adversities amidst the pandemic, requiring studies and new spatiotemporal techniques to understand the pandemic development and planning actions to reverse the current situation.

Objective: the aim was to evaluate the mortality and lethality trends of covid-19 from april 2020 to june 2021 in the state of pernambuco, brazil, with the division into two periods according to the waves of infection to date (1st period and 2nd period).

Methods: an ecological time-series study was carried out with population data from the pernambuco state health department. We collected the number of confirmed cases and deaths for covid-19. The trends were analyzed according to the prais-winsten regression model in two moments from march 2020 to september 2020 and the second from october 2021 to June 2022. Differences were considered significant when p<0.05.

Results: the state of pernambuco had 581,594 confirmed cases of covid-19, where 51,370 were severe cases, and 530,224 were mild cases, in addition to 18,444 deaths. Given the trends analyzed, mortality was increasing in the second period (april/2020 to june/2021), while lethality decreased in the first period and was stationary in the second period.

Conclusion: this study found an increasing trend in mortality of covid-19 in the state of pernambuco, brazil in the second period, highlighting an urgent need to develop surveillance measures as well as public policies for vulnerable populations, in addition to continuing preventive measures.