The Brexit effect? Identity, threat and preferences for Irish (re)unification in the island of Ireland

he United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016, known as ‘Brexit’, marked a period of political uncertainty, particularly for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This thesis addresses the Brexit context on the island of Ireland using a social identity approach. Through three empirical chapters, it explores how identity and threat shape the post-Brexit political landscape, with a specific focus on the rising calls for the (re)unification of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland into a ‘United Ireland.’ To achieve this, the thesis examines different groups on the island of Ireland: Nationalists and Republicans who support Irish (re)unification, specifically focussing on political leaders (Chapter 2), people who identify with this political group in Northern Ireland (Chapter 3), and Irish nationals in the Republic of Ireland (Chapter 4).

Chapter 2 explored how Republican political leaders strategically use identity to advance their political agenda of Irish (re)unification during the uncertain political context of Brexit. Through a rhetorical psychology analysis of leaders’ speeches at annual conference following the Brexit referendum, the findings illustrate how leaders draw on historical narratives and place identity to appeal to divided and polarised audiences on the island of Ireland. This research provides novel insights into how leaders construct identity for political goals in a real-world divided society where identity is a point of contestation.

Chapter 3 (N = 457) examines perceptions of Brexit as an opportunity for a United Ireland among Nationalists and Republicans in Northern Ireland. Specifically, it investigates whether group identification and perceived Brexit threat are associated with the belief that Brexit has made their political goal of a United Ireland more achievable. The results show that strong group identification is linked to perceiving Brexit as an opportunity for Irish (re)unification, with perceived threat mediating this relationship. Nationalists with strong group identification were more likely to perceive Brexit as a threat, which in turn was associated with seeing a United Ireland as more likely. The findings highlight the relevance of identity and threats to people’s perceptions of the political reality.

Chapter 4 (N = 267) manipulated the economic threat presented by Brexit and assessed political preferences for a United Ireland in the Republic of Ireland. The chapter also examined the effect of Brexit’s economic threat on Irish identification and perceptions of national group boundaries. Participants’ preexisting beliefs about Brexit, measured by their agreement with the manipulated information about Brexit, were examined as a potential moderator. The results indicated that high-threat information about Brexit went along with more support for a United Ireland the more people agreed with the information, while disagreement with high-threat information decreased support for a United Ireland. No effects were found on Irish identification and national group boundaries. Overall, the findings suggest that in the Republic of Ireland, a United Ireland might be seen as a viable solution to Brexit when people agree with threatening information about Brexit. However, support can decrease if people disagree with the threatening information.

Together, the findings of these studies demonstrate the relevance of group identities and threats to understanding political preferences in a shifting political landscape. Applying the social identity approach to a real-world political situation in a divided context has generated new theoretical insights and practical implications.