Evolution of mortality and lethality due to COVID-19 in the State of Roraima, Brazil, from march 2020 to July 2021

Introduction: the context of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian North region is worrying. There is a lack of resources for Public Health, a low human development index, and poverty indicators above the national average. Objective: to analyze mortality and lethality from COVID-19 in the State of Roraima, Brazil. Methods: this is an ecological time-series study of secondary data on COVID-19 in Roraima, Northern Brazil, from March 2020 to July 2021. The incidence, mortality, and lethality rates due to COVID-19 were calculated. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to calculate the time series trends. Trends were classified as increasing, decreasing, or stationary. The trend was considered static when the p-value was not significant (p>0.05). Results: in the state of Roraima, from March 2020 to July 2021, there were 123,125 cases and 1,903 accumulated deaths due to COVID-19. The first wave (March 2020 to October 2021) of COVID-19 recorded the incidence rate (2,995.30 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants - July 2020) and mortality (56.32 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants - June 2020) higher lethality. However, in the second wave (November 2020 to July 2021), the highest lethality rate was observed (3.47% - February 2021). It was observed that during the first wave, the incidence rate of COVID-19 showed increasing trends. During this period, the mortality rate had a stationary tendency (p>0.05) and the percentage lethality with a decreasing trend (p<0.05). During the second wave, there was a more aggravating scenario for lethality, which changed from a daily reduction rate of 0.90% to stationary trends. Conclusion: the pandemic in the state of Roraima is not yet under control, so it is necessary to strengthen strategies to mitigate the spread of the pandemic in the region and prevent the formation of new waves.