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GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting

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posted on 2022-03-24, 10:57 authored by Colm Duffy, Remi Prudhomme, Brian Duffy, James Gibbons, Cathal O'Donoghue, Mary Ryan, David Styles
The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ◦C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs

History

Publication

Geoscientific Model Devlopment;15, pp. 2239–2264

Publisher

Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

Note

peer-reviewed

Other Funding information

EPA

Language

English

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