Russia’s divided democrats: Splits and barriers to coalition-building (2011-2019)

This thesis analyses fragmentation within the Russian democratic movement during the period between 2011 and 2019 in order to identify the primary causes of this phenomenon. Despite their mutual opposition to the Putin’s regime, independent opposition parties in Russia struggled to unite in a coalition. The literature on the topic of opposition fragmentation in undemocratic countries primarily focuses on external factors related to institutional barriers (such as strong presidency) or political environment (such as the divide-and-rule strategy of political elites), whereas internal factors remain understudied. There is a category of studies that explore the reasons behind the divisions between liberal-democratic parties during the earlier period of Russian history – during the Yel’tsin and early Putin presidencies; these studies outline both external and internal causes of opposition fragmentation. However, changes in the Russian regime and the emergence of a new generation of political forces justify an up-to-date examination of this phenomenon.

My main findings are based on the case study and qualitative interview analysis. The thesis studies two cases of party splits and two unsuccessful attempts to form a broad opposition coalition. In order to gain a deeper understanding of reasons for these divisions, 19 interviews were conducted with Moscow-based opposition activists and local leaders from different opposition parties and movements. Interviewees were asked about their attitudes towards cooperation with other opposition forces and their opinions regarding the divisions that occurred during the last decade.

This study outlines a range of internal factors that contributed to the opposition fragmentation in Russia: they are related to the ineffectiveness within opposition parties and coalitions that led to the defection of members and the unwillingness of more effective opposition groups to cooperate with the less effective ones, a distrust between opposition groups who expressed different levels of opposition to the regime, weak democratic mechanisms within parties and coalitions that resulted in splits and the unequal balance of power between registered and unregistered parties that complicated coalition negotiations.